Nowcasting and Short Range forecasting at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Peter Steinle

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research - a Partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO

A number of activities within CAWCR are targeted at improving the short range (a few hours) prediction of rainfall. The first of

these is Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) system, which is based on the scale dependent advection of radar

and gauge estimates of rainfall. The second is the development of high resolution (1.5km) numerical weather prediction (NWP)

systems capable of assimilating rainfall data and Doppler winds from radar. Such systems will however still take an hour or two

to provide information to forecasters, and it is therefore difficult for NWP alone to replace the nowcasting systems. The plans

for the two activities mentioned to use the NWP predictions with the STEPS system as to account for the evolution of the rainfall

systems and thereby extending the useful range of the nowcasting system. This presentation will provide an outline of progress

on the development of these two systems.