Workshop on Use of NWP for Nowcasting

Agenda

24 October
Goals of the workshop - Perspectives from WGNR and WGMWFR
Paul Joe, Jeanette Onvlee

Session 1: Current State of Art of Nowcasting and New Observations
Chair: Jenny Sun
Keynote 1: Challenges of nowcasting
George Issac
Keynote 2: Evaluation and Comparison of NowcastingTechniques/System for Convective storms
Jim Wilson
Nowcasting Experience and Challenges in Hong Kong
Peter Li
WRF Simulations of Lightning Threats
Steven Goodman
Nowcasting and Short-range Forecast Systems in SocialExperiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities in Tokyo
Metropolitan Area
Shingo Shimizu


Session 2: Suitability of Convective-scale NWP Models for Nowcasting
Chair: Jeanette Onvlee
Keynote 1: Overview of Current Mesoscale NWP Capabilities for 0-6 Hour Forecast
Ming Xue
Keynote 2: Major Physical Processes that Influence the Forecast Accuracy for the Very Short Term
Jim Dudhia
Challenges in Operational Nowcasting of Beijing ---- from Forecaster’s Perspective
JianJie Wang
Met Office Experiences with Convection Permitting Models
Humphrey Lean
Nowcasting and Short Range forecasting at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Peter Steinle
Strategies for improved 1-12h NWP for NOAA in the 13km Rapid Refresh and 3km HRRR
Stan Benjamin
The Development of GRAPES_RAFS and its Application
Zhifang Xu
Diagnosis of Very Short Range Forecasts Errors with the ALADIN Limited Area Model
Gergely Boloni
Nowcasting Strategies, Rapid Analysis Refresh and High Resolution Modeling
Ludovic Auger


25 October


Session 3: Use of NWP in Blended Model/Observation-based Nowcasting Systems
Chair: Peter Li
Keynote 1: Requirements and Limitations of Mesoscale NWP Systems from Nowcaster’s Perspective
Isztar Zawadzki
Keynote 2: Overview of Current Techniques/Systems that Use NWP Indirectly for Nowcasting
Yong Wang
Stochastic Precipitation Nowcasting and NWP Post-processing for Fluvial and Pluvial Flood Forecasting and Warning
Brian Golding
Improvement of Dynamic Balance for a Hot Start Analysis for Short-rang Forecast
Yuanfu Xie
Ingredients Improving Rainfall Forecast in Very Short-range Diabatic Initialization and Microphysics
Eunha Lim
Application of Cloud Analysis in GRAPES_RAFS
Dehui Chen
Evaluation of the 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) as Nowcast Guidance
Curtis Alexander


Session 4: High-resolution Data Assimilation to Improve Very-short-term Forecast
Chair: Brian Golding
Keynote 1: Development of Convective Scale Data Assimilation Techniques for Very Short Term High Impact Weather Forecasting
Jenny Sun
Keynote 2: Data Assimilation Strategies for Operational NWP at Meso-scale and Implication for Nowcasting
Thibaut Montmerle
Development of NWP-based Nowcasting at the Met Office
Sue Ballard
Development of Data Assimilation Systems for Short-Term Numerical Weather Prediction at JMA
Tadashi Fujita


Meso- and Storm-scale Assimilation to Improve Very-short-termForecasts of Hazardous Weather within the RUC, Rapid Refresh,
and HRRR Models
Steve Weygandt
Towards Rapid Update Cycling for Short Range NWP Forecasts in the HIRLAM Community
Magnus Lindskog
Development of a Convective Scale Ensemble Kalman Filter at Environment Canada
Luc Fillion
Data assimilation for Very Short-range Forecasting in COSMO
Christoph Schraff



26 October


Session 5: Verification and User Application of Nowcasting Techniques/Systems
Chair: Paul Joe
Keynote 1: Verification of Nowcasting Products: Issues and Methods
Barb Brown
Evaluation of Convective Storm Initiation Nowcasts and Forecaster Involvement
Rita Roberts
Completing the Forecast—Bridging Weather Predictions to User Applications
Matthias Steiner


Session 6: Discussions and Plans for the Next Step
Chairs: Jeanette Onvlee, Paul Joe, and Jenny Sun
Discussions with three break-up groups

Possible topics:

  1. Identify specific development/improvement efforts that the NWP community can make to improve the performance of NWP in the nowcasting range.
  2. New ideas and techniques to improve/optimize the direct/indirect use of NWP for nowcasting.
  3. Suggestions for international collaboration in experimentation concerning the NWP use in nowcasting.

Plenary session to wrap-up and make plans for the next step



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General Information

Logistics

Call For Papers

Abstracts

Breakout Group Report